Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.1% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs MacKinnon 43.8% (+10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 86.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 87.0%
87.0%
13.0%
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Last 8: Pavelski 6-2 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
2
Pavelski
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
44.4% (743)
+10.0%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
35.7% (70)
+16.2%
Penalty Kill
52.7% (74)
25.9% (27)
+26.8%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Pavelski is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (159).
Pavelski shoots right. MacKinnon is 41.2% vs right-shot opponents (194).
Home / Away
Pavelski
MacKinnon
Home
54.3% (313)
46.4% (394)
Away
53.4% (339)
40.1% (446)
By Period
Pavelski
MacKinnon
P1
51.0%
44.4%
P2
51.9%
38.2%
P3
58.1%
46.4%
OT
62.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
44.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2019 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 08:44 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 2 | 06:48 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 5, 2019 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 04:12 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 02:26 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |