Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.9% vs Zacha 49.0% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 56.6%
Defensive zone
Zacha 73.0%
Neutral zone
Zacha 64.6%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 63.9%
36.1%
63.9%
Pavelski
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Pavelski
Zacha
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Zacha
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Pavelski
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
3
Pavelski
Zacha
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (730)
47.8% (619)
+6.2%
Power Play
57.1% (156)
58.6% (29)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (103)
54.7% (64)
-13.0%
On penalty kill, Zacha has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Pavelski is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Pavelski shoots right. Zacha is 50.2% vs right-shot opponents (213).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zacha
Home
55.2% (458)
50.8% (394)
Away
51.4% (531)
46.5% (318)
By Period
Pavelski
Zacha
P1
54.0%
48.5%
P2
54.5%
51.2%
P3
50.5%
47.6%
OT
60.0%
16.7%
Final 5 min
52.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
48.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2018 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 1 | 10:41 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 14, 2018 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |