Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Zacha 50.1% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 54.4%
Defensive zone
Zacha 57.9%
Neutral zone
Zacha 55.1%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Pavelski
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pavelski
Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
0
1
Pavelski
Zacha
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
48.0% (296)
+4.5%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
61.0% (59)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
50.0% (22)
-5.6%
On power play, Zacha has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Zacha is 53.1% vs right-shot opponents (160).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zacha
Home
55.0% (391)
48.9% (223)
Away
49.7% (360)
51.9% (154)
By Period
Pavelski
Zacha
P1
50.8%
47.9%
P2
55.0%
48.3%
P3
52.0%
54.3%
OT
25.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
56.2%
47.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
50.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |