Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Zacha 49.1% (+5.1%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 18-11 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 83.7%
Defensive zone
Zacha 79.4%
Neutral zone
Zacha 83.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 81.9%
18.1%
81.9%
Pavelski
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
18
(29 meetings)
11
18
Pavelski
Zacha
Last 10: Pavelski 3-7 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
5
Pavelski
Zacha
13 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
9
Pavelski
Zacha
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
4
Pavelski
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.9% (5,102)
+4.7%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
55.6% (804)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.2% (555)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Zacha
Home
56.4% (5,998)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Pavelski
Zacha
P1
53.5%
49.9%
P2
55.2%
49.2%
P3
53.9%
48.1%
OT
52.3%
53.1%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:47 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 3 | 06:58 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:08 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 16:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 10:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 04:01 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 2 | 05:28 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 6, 2023 | 1 | 03:41 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 14, 2023 | 3 | 00:53 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 3 | 18:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 17:41 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 17:27 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 16:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 18:50 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 11:50 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 3 | 05:40 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 18:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 10, 2018 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |