Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.1% vs 51.9%). Look for Danault on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Danault 51.7% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 60.8%
Defensive zone
Danault 55.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 53.7%
53.7%
46.3%
Pavelski
Danault
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pavelski
Danault
Last 9: Pavelski 3-6 Danault
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
3
Pavelski
Danault
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
1
2
Pavelski
Danault
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Danault
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Danault
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
52.6% (895)
-1.1%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
55.7% (97)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
45.5% (165)
-16.9%
On penalty kill, Danault has a +16.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Danault shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Danault is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (370).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Danault
Home
53.1% (339)
54.0% (581)
Away
49.2% (356)
49.7% (576)
By Period
Pavelski
Danault
P1
53.8%
53.7%
P2
47.8%
55.3%
P3
50.2%
46.5%
OT
71.4%
46.2%
Final 5 min
48.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:37 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 16:31 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:31 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 10:34 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 11:55 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 3 | 02:38 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 11:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |