Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Colton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.8% vs Colton 49.0% (+3.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Colton 51.5%
Defensive zone
Colton 56.8%
Neutral zone
Colton 56.8%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 54.7%
45.3%
54.7%
Pavelski
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Pavelski
Colton
Last 5: Pavelski 2-3 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Colton
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
0
3
Pavelski
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (508)
49.2% (199)
+4.3%
Power Play
51.7% (118)
33.3% (9)
+18.4%
On power play, Pavelski has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Pavelski shoots right. Colton is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (56).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Colton
Home
54.3% (372)
46.3% (121)
Away
49.4% (324)
51.7% (87)
By Period
Pavelski
Colton
P1
48.7%
56.2%
P2
57.7%
46.8%
P3
50.2%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.0%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 11:41 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:09 | Defensive | Ross Colton |