Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Colton on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Colton shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Colton 51.0% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Colton leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 52.1%
Defensive zone
Colton 61.6%
Neutral zone
Colton 55.3%
Result
Ross Colton favored at 55.5%
44.5%
55.5%
Pavelski
Colton
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Pavelski
Colton
Last 10: Pavelski 4-6 Colton
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Colton
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
0
5
Pavelski
Colton
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
0
Pavelski
Colton
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Colton
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
51.6% (1,800)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
48.8% (162)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
34.5% (29)
+16.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +16.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Colton shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Colton is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (696).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Colton
Home
56.4% (5,998)
51.9% (1,013)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
50.2% (978)
By Period
Pavelski
Colton
P1
53.5%
53.5%
P2
55.2%
52.6%
P3
53.9%
47.9%
OT
52.3%
25.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
46.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Colton
44.0%▲
42.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:58 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 04:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 2 | 12:56 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 08:14 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 19:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 1 | 10:46 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 18:11 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| May 7, 2021 | 1 | 11:41 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 04:11 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 3 | 10:09 | Defensive | Ross Colton |