Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.3% vs Donato 44.6% (+14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 82.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 91.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 86.2%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 86.5%
86.5%
13.5%
Pavelski
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Donato
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (474)
39.8% (93)
+14.6%
Power Play
51.9% (104)
33.3% (9)
+18.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Pavelski is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (493).
Pavelski shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Donato
Home
54.3% (313)
39.4% (66)
Away
53.4% (339)
38.9% (36)
By Period
Pavelski
Donato
P1
51.0%
40.5%
P2
51.9%
36.7%
P3
58.1%
40.0%
Final 5 min
51.9%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.8%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
39.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 01:55 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |