Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Donato 46.0% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 75.3%
Defensive zone
Donato 69.3%
Neutral zone
Donato 72.7%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 71.0%
29.0%
71.0%
Pavelski
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Pavelski
Donato
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Pavelski
Donato
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Donato
0
1
Pavelski
Donato
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
44.4% (180)
+7.1%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
43.2% (37)
+8.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
40.0% (5)
-11.4%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Donato is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (85).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Donato
Home
53.1% (339)
45.4% (97)
Away
49.2% (356)
43.2% (125)
By Period
Pavelski
Donato
P1
53.8%
36.2%
P2
47.8%
48.6%
P3
50.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.6%
45.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:34 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |