Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Donato 44.9% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 54.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 80.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 71.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Pavelski
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Pavelski
Donato
Last 7: Pavelski 4-3 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Donato
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Donato
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pavelski
Donato
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
44.2% (1,179)
+9.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
46.3% (246)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
36.4% (11)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Donato
Home
56.4% (5,998)
47.2% (743)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Pavelski
Donato
P1
53.5%
43.4%
P2
55.2%
45.1%
P3
53.9%
44.4%
OT
52.3%
70.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 02:34 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 04:59 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 13:24 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 13:19 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 08:37 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 3 | 01:55 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 18, 2020 | 1 | 17:20 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |