Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Pavelski wins 57.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.5% vs Johansen 52.2% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 75.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 82.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.8%
76.8%
23.2%
Pavelski
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Pavelski
Johansen
Last 10: Pavelski 7-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Johansen
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Johansen
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
1
Pavelski
Johansen
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (657)
51.9% (1,006)
+1.7%
Power Play
60.2% (221)
56.0% (207)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (60)
42.4% (33)
+9.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Pavelski is 57.0% vs right-shot opponents (207).
Pavelski shoots right. Johansen is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (390).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johansen
Home
57.4% (470)
56.4% (633)
Away
52.6% (468)
48.1% (613)
By Period
Pavelski
Johansen
P1
53.4%
51.4%
P2
55.6%
52.9%
P3
55.5%
51.7%
OT
62.5%
84.6%
Final 5 min
55.9%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
55.0%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2016 | 2 | 00:55 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 3 | 08:44 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 17:52 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 6, 2016 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 2 | 03:04 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 1 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 1 | 05:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 1 | 00:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 22, 2015 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 05:38 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 3 | 05:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 3, 2015 | 2 | 18:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |