Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 53.4%). Look for Pavelski on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Johansen 53.3% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 60-42 in 102 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 56.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 64.5%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 63.3%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 61.2%
61.2%
38.8%
Pavelski
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
60
-
42
(102 meetings)
60
42
Pavelski
Johansen
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
23
14
Pavelski
Johansen
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
16
21
Pavelski
Johansen
37 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
21
7
Pavelski
Johansen
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
53.1% (11,017)
+0.5%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
56.2% (2,163)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
50.5% (978)
+0.4%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Johansen is 51.3% vs right-shot opponents (4,371).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johansen
Home
56.4% (5,998)
55.0% (7,001)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
51.7% (7,158)
By Period
Pavelski
Johansen
P1
53.5%
53.2%
P2
55.2%
53.9%
P3
53.9%
52.8%
OT
52.3%
58.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 24, 2022 | 3 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 3 | 12:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 1, 2021 | 1 | 13:56 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 3 | 07:47 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 1 | 16:28 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 1 | 09:01 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 30, 2021 | 1 | 00:26 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 21, 2021 | OT | 04:51 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 08:02 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 3 | 05:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 7, 2021 | 3 | 14:52 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |