Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Johansen 52.8% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 50.5%
Defensive zone
Johansen 55.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.6%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Pavelski
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Pavelski
Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Johansen
0
2
Pavelski
Johansen
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
51.9% (597)
-0.4%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
57.9% (133)
-6.2%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
54.3% (81)
-25.7%
On penalty kill, Johansen has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Johansen is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (227).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johansen
Home
53.1% (339)
55.8% (387)
Away
49.2% (356)
50.7% (424)
By Period
Pavelski
Johansen
P1
53.8%
50.0%
P2
47.8%
56.2%
P3
50.2%
52.6%
OT
71.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 3 | 12:01 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 3 | 10:06 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |