Scouting Report
Ryan Johansen holds a +5.8% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Johansen 58.2% (-5.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 61.9%
Defensive zone
Johansen 53.3%
Neutral zone
Johansen 59.1%
Result
Ryan Johansen favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Pavelski
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pavelski
Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Johansen
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
59.8% (625)
-7.5%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
58.2% (196)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
51.9% (27)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Johansen is 56.3% vs right-shot opponents (254).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johansen
Home
54.2% (360)
60.3% (436)
Away
52.6% (329)
58.0% (412)
By Period
Pavelski
Johansen
P1
54.5%
61.3%
P2
56.7%
60.4%
P3
50.8%
56.0%
OT
30.8%
56.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
59.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2022 | 2 | 10:47 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |