Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 55.4%). Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 61.8% vs right-shot opponents — Johansen shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.4% vs Johansen 55.1% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johansen 52.5%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 60.8%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 54.7%
54.7%
45.3%
Pavelski
Johansen
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Pavelski
Johansen
Last 9: Pavelski 6-3 Johansen
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Johansen
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Johansen
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Johansen
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johansen
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (690)
55.9% (1,157)
-2.7%
Power Play
61.5% (174)
56.5% (237)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
55.3% (47)
43.3% (67)
+12.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johansen shoots right. Pavelski is 61.8% vs right-shot opponents (204).
Pavelski shoots right. Johansen is 51.9% vs right-shot opponents (457).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johansen
Home
56.1% (421)
55.8% (733)
Away
53.9% (490)
55.1% (728)
By Period
Pavelski
Johansen
P1
57.1%
53.5%
P2
55.8%
55.9%
P3
52.5%
57.2%
OT
44.4%
47.4%
Final 5 min
60.8%
51.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.9%
Johansen
48.0%▬
48.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2018 | 3 | 06:22 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 2 | 00:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 12:05 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 29, 2018 | 1 | 06:01 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 15:07 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Ryan Johansen |
| Feb 22, 2018 | 1 | 03:09 | Offensive | Ryan Johansen |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 3 | 09:06 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 1, 2017 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Ryan Johansen |