Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs O'Reilly 56.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-9 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 65.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 67.9%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 50.9%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.7%
46.3%
53.7%
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
11
(20 meetings)
9
11
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
3
Pavelski
O'Reilly
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
6
Pavelski
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Pavelski
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
56.6% (1,064)
-4.1%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
60.4% (260)
-5.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
54.0% (261)
-9.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +9.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (582).
Home / Away
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Home
55.0% (391)
54.9% (801)
Away
49.7% (360)
58.7% (784)
By Period
Pavelski
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
58.0%
P2
55.0%
56.7%
P3
52.0%
55.4%
OT
25.0%
64.7%
Final 5 min
56.2%
56.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 05:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 17:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 07:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 07:32 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 3 | 08:24 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 14, 2021 | 1 | 06:05 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 20, 2021 | 3 | 13:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |