Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 61.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 67.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 50.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.9%
50.9%
49.1%
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Pavelski
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
56.1% (690)
-3.8%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
64.6% (96)
-7.1%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
45.9% (109)
+16.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. O'Reilly is 56.5% vs right-shot opponents (292).
Home / Away
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Home
54.2% (360)
58.3% (408)
Away
52.6% (329)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Pavelski
O'Reilly
P1
54.5%
57.7%
P2
56.7%
54.8%
P3
50.8%
55.2%
OT
30.8%
45.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |