Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 49 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 75-65 in 140 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 57.9%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 52.4%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 55.8%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
65
-
75
(140 meetings)
65
75
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
32
26
Pavelski
O'Reilly
58 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
31
Pavelski
O'Reilly
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
18
Pavelski
O'Reilly
33 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
56.2% (15,260)
-2.6%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
58.8% (3,445)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
51.4% (2,811)
-0.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Home
56.4% (5,998)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Pavelski
O'Reilly
P1
53.5%
55.6%
P2
55.2%
57.0%
P3
53.9%
55.1%
OT
52.3%
62.2%
Final 5 min
54.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2022 | 1 | 00:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 19:31 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 2 | 05:38 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:32 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 16:03 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 14:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 05:31 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 17, 2021 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |