Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs O'Reilly 53.7% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 68.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 60.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.5%
41.5%
58.5%
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Last 6: Pavelski 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Pavelski
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
55.0% (1,084)
-3.5%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
56.8% (303)
-5.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
40.3% (149)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. O'Reilly is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (555).
Home / Away
Pavelski
O'Reilly
Home
53.1% (339)
54.8% (759)
Away
49.2% (356)
53.0% (777)
By Period
Pavelski
O'Reilly
P1
53.8%
55.3%
P2
47.8%
51.9%
P3
50.2%
54.2%
OT
71.4%
64.7%
Final 5 min
48.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2024 | 2 | 14:44 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 15, 2024 | 1 | 00:35 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 12, 2024 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 18:20 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 17:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |