Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +31.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pavelski wins 59.5% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Reinhart 38.2% (+31.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 94.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 92.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 93.6%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 93.9%
93.9%
6.1%
Pavelski
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Pavelski
Reinhart
Last 5: Pavelski 4-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
1
Pavelski
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
22.6% (84)
+32.4%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
100.0% (2)
-37.3%
On power play, Reinhart has a +37.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Pavelski is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Pavelski shoots right. Reinhart is 21.4% vs right-shot opponents (42).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Reinhart
Home
58.1% (580)
22.9% (35)
Away
53.8% (567)
25.5% (51)
By Period
Pavelski
Reinhart
P1
53.4%
22.2%
P2
58.6%
22.2%
P3
56.4%
28.1%
Final 5 min
57.4%
22.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
24.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |