Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 94.4%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 94.6%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 94.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 94.4%
94.4%
5.6%
Pavelski
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Pavelski
Reinhart
Last 6: Pavelski 5-1 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
1
Pavelski
Reinhart
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
42.5% (2,173)
+11.1%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
46.5% (525)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.3% (339)
+9.6%
On power play, Pavelski has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Reinhart is 47.9% vs right-shot opponents (754).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Reinhart
Home
56.4% (5,998)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Pavelski
Reinhart
P1
53.5%
44.5%
P2
55.2%
40.5%
P3
53.9%
44.5%
OT
52.3%
43.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2016 | 2 | 04:18 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 15:58 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 08:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 3 | 00:57 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 2 | 10:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 25, 2014 | 1 | 02:19 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |