Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.0% vs 51.1%). Look for Lorentz on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 51.8% vs Lorentz 50.9% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 51.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 53.9%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Pavelski
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Pavelski
Lorentz
Last 8: Pavelski 4-4 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Lorentz
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
4
Pavelski
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (508)
51.7% (292)
+1.8%
Power Play
51.7% (118)
40.0% (10)
+11.7%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (70)
42.9% (7)
-1.5%
On power play, Pavelski has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Pavelski is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (533).
Pavelski shoots right. Lorentz is 45.3% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lorentz
Home
54.3% (372)
52.3% (155)
Away
49.4% (324)
50.0% (154)
By Period
Pavelski
Lorentz
P1
48.7%
59.2%
P2
57.7%
50.9%
P3
50.2%
43.2%
Final 5 min
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.0%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 16:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |