Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Lorentz 48.2% (+5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 82.7%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 50.0%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 65.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 82.7%
82.7%
17.3%
Pavelski
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Pavelski
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
48.3% (497)
+4.0%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
63.6% (11)
-6.1%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
38.5% (39)
+24.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +24.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Pavelski is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (513).
Pavelski shoots right. Lorentz is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (203).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lorentz
Home
54.2% (360)
50.4% (238)
Away
52.6% (329)
46.0% (309)
By Period
Pavelski
Lorentz
P1
54.5%
49.1%
P2
56.7%
48.0%
P3
50.8%
47.2%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
47.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |