Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lorentz on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Lorentz 48.6% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Lorentz leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 51.5%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 57.1%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 50.6%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Pavelski
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Pavelski
Lorentz
Last 10: Pavelski 5-5 Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
1
Pavelski
Lorentz
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Lorentz
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lorentz
1
4
Pavelski
Lorentz
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
48.9% (1,118)
+4.7%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
50.0% (26)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
41.9% (86)
+9.0%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (9,103).
Pavelski shoots right. Lorentz is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (450).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lorentz
Home
56.4% (5,998)
50.8% (606)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
46.2% (624)
By Period
Pavelski
Lorentz
P1
53.5%
53.0%
P2
55.2%
46.8%
P3
53.9%
46.1%
OT
52.3%
0.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 05:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 27, 2021 | 1 | 07:08 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 18:29 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 3 | 13:49 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 15:56 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 26, 2021 | 1 | 12:50 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 2 | 15:14 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 19:53 | Neutral | Steven Lorentz |
| Feb 13, 2021 | 2 | 16:17 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |