Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Lorentz 49.4% (+2.2%)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 52.3%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 52.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 51.0%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 50.3%
50.3%
49.7%
Pavelski
Lorentz
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
48.9% (135)
+2.6%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
50.0% (4)
-21.4%
On penalty kill, Lorentz has a +21.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Lorentz is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (42).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lorentz
Home
53.1% (339)
50.7% (75)
Away
49.2% (356)
46.9% (64)
By Period
Pavelski
Lorentz
P1
53.8%
60.0%
P2
47.8%
46.3%
P3
50.2%
44.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
48.9%