Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Lorentz shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 52.2% vs Lorentz 47.6% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lorentz 60.6%
Defensive zone
Lorentz 62.1%
Neutral zone
Lorentz 56.3%
Result
Steven Lorentz favored at 60.6%
39.4%
60.6%
Pavelski
Lorentz
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Pavelski
Lorentz
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lorentz
0
1
Pavelski
Lorentz
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lorentz
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (570)
46.5% (101)
+6.0%
Power Play
54.5% (145)
33.3% (3)
+21.2%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (36)
37.5% (8)
+6.9%
On power play, Pavelski has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lorentz shoots left. Pavelski is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Pavelski shoots right. Lorentz is 40.0% vs right-shot opponents (50).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lorentz
Home
55.0% (391)
49.1% (53)
Away
49.7% (360)
42.4% (59)
By Period
Pavelski
Lorentz
P1
50.8%
48.6%
P2
55.0%
36.7%
P3
52.0%
57.7%
Final 5 min
56.2%
41.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
52.5%
Lorentz
50.0%▲
47.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2021 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Steven Lorentz |