Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lewis shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Lewis 43.2% (+11.3%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 8-7 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 67.1%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 71.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 69.1%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 69.2%
69.2%
30.8%
Pavelski
Lewis
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
7
(15 meetings)
8
7
Pavelski
Lewis
Last 10: Pavelski 6-4 Lewis
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Lewis
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Lewis
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lewis
2
3
Pavelski
Lewis
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Lewis
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
43.2% (2,347)
+10.4%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
51.9% (108)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
38.6% (365)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lewis shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Lewis is 43.7% vs right-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Lewis
Home
56.4% (5,998)
44.1% (1,395)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
41.8% (1,428)
By Period
Pavelski
Lewis
P1
53.5%
42.8%
P2
55.2%
43.9%
P3
53.9%
41.9%
OT
52.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
54.4%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Lewis
34.0%▼
46.5%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:21 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Apr 21, 2022 | 1 | 06:02 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 13:14 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 8, 2020 | 1 | 11:04 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 15, 2018 | 1 | 17:25 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 22, 2015 | 2 | 10:15 | Offensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 22, 2015 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Oct 7, 2015 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Apr 11, 2015 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Oct 30, 2013 | 3 | 06:54 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 07:18 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Mar 24, 2011 | 1 | 15:42 | Neutral | Trevor Lewis |
| Dec 27, 2010 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Trevor Lewis |
| Nov 15, 2010 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |