Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 59.5% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 55.5% vs Johnson 48.8% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 88.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 94.3%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 90.4%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 91.5%
91.5%
8.5%
Pavelski
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
0
(5 meetings)
5
0
Pavelski
Johnson
Last 5: Pavelski 5-0 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Johnson
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Johnson
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
2
0
Pavelski
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (785)
49.5% (828)
+5.5%
Power Play
62.7% (201)
54.9% (142)
+7.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (161)
36.8% (133)
+15.4%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Pavelski is 59.5% vs right-shot opponents (321).
Pavelski shoots right. Johnson is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (375).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johnson
Home
58.1% (580)
50.7% (564)
Away
53.8% (567)
46.6% (539)
By Period
Pavelski
Johnson
P1
53.4%
51.2%
P2
58.6%
47.5%
P3
56.4%
48.4%
OT
36.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.4%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
56.0%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 15, 2015 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |