Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 57.4% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 53.0% vs Johnson 50.7% (+2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Johnson 53.8%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 67.7%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 53.5%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 53.8%
46.2%
53.8%
Pavelski
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pavelski
Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Johnson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
52.3% (560)
47.4% (78)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.5% (113)
57.6% (33)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
62.5% (16)
100.0% (2)
-37.5%
On penalty kill, Johnson has a +37.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Pavelski is 57.4% vs right-shot opponents (176).
Pavelski shoots right. Johnson is 54.1% vs right-shot opponents (37).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johnson
Home
54.2% (360)
50.9% (57)
Away
52.6% (329)
51.8% (56)
By Period
Pavelski
Johnson
P1
54.5%
44.1%
P2
56.7%
59.4%
P3
50.8%
52.3%
OT
30.8%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
56.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
53.4%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |