Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on offensive-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Pavelski wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 54.1% vs Johnson 49.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Pavelski leads 16-5 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Pavelski 87.2%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 87.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 88.9%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 87.6%
87.6%
12.4%
Pavelski
Johnson
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
5
(21 meetings)
16
5
Pavelski
Johnson
Last 10: Pavelski 8-2 Johnson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
8
3
Pavelski
Johnson
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
3
2
Pavelski
Johnson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pavelski
5
0
Pavelski
Johnson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
53.6% (8,791)
49.8% (5,396)
+3.8%
Power Play
58.2% (2,122)
54.6% (885)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (1,138)
42.3% (707)
+8.6%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Pavelski is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,971).
Pavelski shoots right. Johnson is 49.8% vs right-shot opponents (2,203).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johnson
Home
56.4% (5,998)
52.5% (3,460)
Away
52.0% (6,076)
46.8% (3,528)
By Period
Pavelski
Johnson
P1
53.5%
50.1%
P2
55.2%
50.6%
P3
53.9%
48.4%
OT
52.3%
42.5%
Final 5 min
54.4%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
54.2%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 28, 2023 | 3 | 00:41 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| May 7, 2021 | 3 | 03:34 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| May 7, 2021 | 2 | 07:03 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 23, 2021 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Mar 16, 2021 | 1 | 04:08 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 3 | 05:14 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 19, 2019 | 1 | 05:36 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 19:55 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 5, 2019 | 1 | 14:45 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Dec 2, 2017 | 2 | 19:25 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Nov 8, 2017 | 2 | 05:00 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 16, 2016 | 2 | 07:28 | Offensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Feb 15, 2015 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 17:34 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 12:23 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 3 | 07:32 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 17:50 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 1 | 10:07 | Defensive | Tyler Johnson |
| Jan 18, 2014 | 1 | 09:46 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |