Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Pavelski wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Johnson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Johnson 45.7% (+6.7%)
Offensive zone
Johnson 56.2%
Defensive zone
Johnson 51.3%
Neutral zone
Johnson 50.9%
Result
Tyler Johnson favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Pavelski
Johnson
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Johnson
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
44.6% (285)
+6.9%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
46.7% (60)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
16.7% (6)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Pavelski has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnson shoots right. Pavelski is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (168).
Pavelski shoots right. Johnson is 47.4% vs right-shot opponents (78).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Johnson
Home
53.1% (339)
50.8% (179)
Away
49.2% (356)
37.8% (172)
By Period
Pavelski
Johnson
P1
53.8%
41.3%
P2
47.8%
41.8%
P3
50.2%
49.6%
OT
71.4%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Johnson
42.0%▼
48.0%
44.4%