Scouting Report
Auston Matthews holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Matthews wins 53.6% vs left-shot opponents — Veleno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 53.2% vs Veleno 49.2% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Veleno leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Veleno 61.8%
Defensive zone
Veleno 64.2%
Neutral zone
Veleno 60.3%
Result
Joe Veleno favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Matthews
Veleno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Matthews
Veleno
Last 10: Matthews 4-6 Veleno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Matthews
3
1
Matthews
Veleno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
0
5
Matthews
Veleno
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Matthews
Veleno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
Veleno
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (1,169)
48.4% (531)
+5.0%
Power Play
65.8% (76)
56.3% (64)
+9.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (74)
44.4% (27)
-2.5%
On power play, Matthews has a +9.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Veleno shoots left. Matthews is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (841).
Matthews shoots left. Veleno is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Home / Away
Matthews
Veleno
Home
56.5% (703)
48.8% (289)
Away
50.0% (616)
49.2% (333)
By Period
Matthews
Veleno
P1
52.1%
46.1%
P2
54.0%
50.9%
P3
54.0%
49.7%
OT
57.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.6%
52.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
53.4%
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 3 | 01:03 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 18:45 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 16:26 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:26 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:10 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Jan 14, 2024 | 2 | 10:40 | Offensive | Auston Matthews |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 3 | 17:37 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Nov 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:28 | Neutral | Joe Veleno |