Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Veleno on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Veleno 49.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 82.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 77.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 77.4%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 80.4%
19.6%
80.4%
Veleno
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Veleno
Hertl
Last 7: Veleno 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
3
1
Veleno
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Veleno
2
1
Veleno
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Veleno
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.4% (531)
57.0% (718)
-8.6%
Power Play
56.3% (64)
64.9% (188)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (27)
44.2% (77)
+0.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Veleno is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (403).
Veleno shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Veleno
Hertl
Home
48.8% (289)
59.2% (463)
Away
49.2% (333)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Veleno
Hertl
P1
46.1%
56.3%
P2
50.9%
55.4%
P3
49.7%
60.5%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.7%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Veleno
54.0%▲
52.5%
49.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:55 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:06 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 03:00 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:47 | Offensive | Joe Veleno |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 13:15 | Defensive | Joe Veleno |