Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Ek wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 48.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-9.1%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.3%
Defensive zone
Ek 75.0%
Neutral zone
Ek 57.0%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Ek
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
6
(11 meetings)
5
6
Ek
Hertl
Last 10: Ek 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Ek
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
3
2
Ek
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Ek
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (815)
58.1% (823)
-10.9%
Power Play
53.8% (266)
56.2% (265)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (180)
62.9% (35)
-15.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ek is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Ek shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Ek
Hertl
Home
49.9% (693)
59.7% (561)
Away
47.2% (568)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Ek
Hertl
P1
46.2%
51.6%
P2
52.6%
63.8%
P3
46.5%
58.6%
OT
54.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
44.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
48.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 14:04 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 04:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | OT | 04:18 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 16, 2025 | OT | 03:59 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 19:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:36 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:54 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:39 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |