Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Ek wins 45.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 47.7% vs Hertl 52.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Ek leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.2%
Defensive zone
Hertl 62.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Ek
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
10
(22 meetings)
12
10
Ek
Hertl
Last 10: Ek 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Ek
3
2
Ek
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
3
4
Ek
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ek
6
4
Ek
Hertl
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (920)
51.6% (1,084)
-3.6%
Power Play
52.0% (302)
61.0% (246)
-9.0%
Penalty Kill
40.3% (243)
44.1% (136)
-3.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ek is 45.8% vs left-shot opponents (942).
Ek shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Ek
Hertl
Home
49.1% (740)
55.2% (696)
Away
46.1% (725)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Ek
Hertl
P1
47.6%
55.4%
P2
48.9%
54.8%
P3
45.4%
48.9%
OT
60.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.5%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
47.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 17:18 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:41 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:26 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:23 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 07:41 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 10:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 17, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 17:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 12:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 3 | 06:11 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 13:33 | Offensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 07:04 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Dec 9, 2021 | 1 | 16:11 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 3 | 04:19 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2021 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |