Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Ek on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Ek 47.4% vs Hertl 55.4% (-8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.2%
Defensive zone
Ek 73.3%
Neutral zone
Ek 56.9%
Result
Joel Eriksson Ek favored at 62.3%
62.3%
37.7%
Ek
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Ek
Hertl
Last 5: Ek 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Ek
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Ek
2
1
Ek
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Ek
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (609)
54.1% (717)
-6.5%
Power Play
53.3% (152)
61.9% (210)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
34.9% (106)
58.1% (31)
-23.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Ek is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (613).
Ek shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Ek
Hertl
Home
49.2% (331)
58.1% (492)
Away
45.7% (536)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Ek
Hertl
P1
38.7%
57.1%
P2
52.9%
54.0%
P3
48.8%
56.6%
OT
42.9%
66.7%
Final 5 min
46.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Ek
52.0%▲
46.0%
47.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 12, 2025 | 3 | 07:47 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 04:00 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 08:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 12, 2025 | 1 | 05:37 | Defensive | Joel Eriksson Ek |