Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lowry 53.8% vs Tavares 57.2% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.4%
Defensive zone
Lowry 88.0%
Neutral zone
Lowry 56.9%
Result
Adam Lowry favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Lowry
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
7
(8 meetings)
1
7
Lowry
Tavares
Last 8: Lowry 1-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
5
Lowry
Tavares
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Lowry
Tavares
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lowry
1
0
Lowry
Tavares
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lowry
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (660)
58.0% (914)
-2.2%
Power Play
83.3% (6)
57.0% (235)
+26.3%
Penalty Kill
41.4% (87)
57.9% (19)
-16.5%
On power play, Lowry has a +26.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lowry is 51.6% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Lowry shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Home / Away
Lowry
Tavares
Home
54.5% (402)
57.8% (614)
Away
54.1% (351)
57.8% (554)
By Period
Lowry
Tavares
P1
52.4%
58.0%
P2
56.3%
56.9%
P3
54.7%
58.4%
OT
44.4%
57.7%
Final 5 min
58.5%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lowry
54.0%▼
56.0%
54.3%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 10:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 15:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 08:50 | Neutral | Adam Lowry |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 06:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |