Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayton 51.1% vs Tavares 54.4% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 22-12 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayton 69.2%
Defensive zone
Hayton 84.6%
Neutral zone
Hayton 72.1%
Result
Barrett Hayton favored at 75.8%
75.8%
24.2%
Hayton
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
22
(34 meetings)
12
22
Hayton
Tavares
Last 10: Hayton 3-7 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
8
Hayton
Tavares
9 total
Defensive Zone
Even
6
6
Hayton
Tavares
12 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
5
8
Hayton
Tavares
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayton
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (3,479)
54.0% (16,108)
-3.2%
Power Play
56.7% (594)
56.5% (4,283)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (374)
50.6% (620)
-5.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Hayton is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,799).
Hayton shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Home / Away
Hayton
Tavares
Home
52.9% (2,268)
56.1% (10,503)
Away
49.4% (2,179)
52.7% (10,537)
By Period
Hayton
Tavares
P1
52.0%
55.0%
P2
51.4%
54.1%
P3
49.9%
54.1%
OT
58.1%
55.9%
Final 5 min
51.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayton
42.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 10:33 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 09:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 14:31 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 12:32 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 12:14 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 3 | 04:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 09:34 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 06:45 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 03:05 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:45 | Neutral | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Barrett Hayton |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 2 | 14:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |