Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Howden 52.3% vs Tavares 57.7% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Howden 69.6%
Defensive zone
Howden 71.7%
Neutral zone
Howden 68.5%
Result
Brett Howden favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Howden
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Howden
Tavares
Last 5: Howden 1-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Howden
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Howden
1
0
Howden
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Howden
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Howden
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (459)
57.7% (998)
-4.3%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
60.5% (271)
-20.5%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (52)
56.4% (39)
-8.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Howden is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (345).
Howden shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Home / Away
Howden
Tavares
Home
48.8% (258)
59.7% (610)
Away
56.6% (258)
57.0% (698)
By Period
Howden
Tavares
P1
54.0%
57.2%
P2
53.2%
58.5%
P3
50.9%
59.4%
OT
50.0%
46.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
57.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Howden
44.0%▼
46.5%
52.7%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2025 | 2 | 17:51 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 15:03 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 06:32 | Defensive | Brett Howden |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 06:27 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 5, 2025 | 1 | 03:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |