Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Cozens wins 45.7% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Cozens 46.1% vs Tavares 59.8% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Cozens 75.6%
Defensive zone
Cozens 69.9%
Neutral zone
Cozens 75.9%
Result
Dylan Cozens favored at 74.8%
74.8%
25.2%
Cozens
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Cozens
Tavares
Last 6: Cozens 1-5 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
2
Cozens
Tavares
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Cozens
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Cozens
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Cozens
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (746)
60.9% (1,043)
-15.3%
Power Play
50.8% (65)
60.4% (278)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
47.6% (21)
-13.1%
On even strength, Tavares has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Cozens is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Cozens shoots right. Tavares is 57.1% vs right-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Cozens
Tavares
Home
43.9% (410)
63.5% (684)
Away
47.2% (430)
57.6% (658)
By Period
Cozens
Tavares
P1
46.4%
60.3%
P2
41.6%
60.4%
P3
49.4%
60.1%
OT
0.0%
92.3%
Final 5 min
46.0%
57.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Cozens
48.0%▼
52.5%
45.6%
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
60.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 16:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 06:41 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 18:44 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2022 | 1 | 17:22 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 18:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 17:33 | Neutral | Dylan Cozens |