Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.0% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Toews 60.3% (-3.6%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 59.6%
Defensive zone
Tavares 57.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Tavares
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Tavares
Toews
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Toews
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
1
2
Tavares
Toews
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
1
3
Tavares
Toews
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
62.5% (696)
-4.5%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
59.6% (141)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
46.9% (32)
+11.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +11.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Tavares is 61.0% vs left-shot opponents (766).
Tavares shoots left. Toews is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (577).
Home / Away
Tavares
Toews
Home
57.8% (614)
60.9% (435)
Away
57.8% (554)
62.0% (434)
By Period
Tavares
Toews
P1
58.0%
59.8%
P2
56.9%
65.7%
P3
58.4%
58.8%
OT
57.7%
80.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
61.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |