Scouting Report
Jonathan Toews holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Toews on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 49 meetings). Tavares wins 56.3% vs left-shot opponents — Toews shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Toews 57.9% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Toews leads 89-74 in 163 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 62.2%
Defensive zone
Tavares 52.6%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.4%
Result
John Tavares favored at 58.4%
58.4%
41.6%
Tavares
Toews
Head-to-Head Record
74
-
89
(163 meetings)
74
89
Tavares
Toews
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 Toews
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
27
Tavares
Toews
58 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Toews
17
32
Tavares
Toews
49 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Toews
26
30
Tavares
Toews
56 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Toews
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
57.2% (13,047)
-3.2%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
63.3% (3,252)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
53.6% (1,810)
-3.0%
On power play, Toews has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Toews shoots left. Tavares is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (13,505).
Tavares shoots left. Toews is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (11,653).
Home / Away
Tavares
Toews
Home
56.1% (10,503)
59.7% (9,192)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
56.1% (8,948)
By Period
Tavares
Toews
P1
55.0%
58.6%
P2
54.1%
57.8%
P3
54.1%
57.3%
OT
55.9%
58.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Toews
58.0%▼
61.0%
57.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 19:46 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 12:29 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 17:57 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:22 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 1 | 18:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 3 | 01:42 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 13:46 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 2 | 01:34 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 1, 2026 | 1 | 11:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 17:32 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 01:02 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 2 | 00:56 | Neutral | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 11, 2021 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Jonathan Toews |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 3 | 02:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 14:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 2 | 05:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 27, 2021 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Jonathan Toews |