Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.8% vs Stenlund 53.0% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 79.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 85.0%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 53.1%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
4
Tavares
Stenlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.0% (691)
55.0% (500)
+4.0%
Power Play
57.2% (173)
50.0% (40)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
63.6% (11)
50.6% (243)
+13.0%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +13.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (511).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
58.0% (500)
55.5% (346)
Away
59.7% (375)
51.7% (437)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
59.5%
54.4%
P2
58.5%
51.7%
P3
58.2%
54.8%
OT
60.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
57.6%
56.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |