Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs Stenlund 54.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 5-5 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 84.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 81.5%
Neutral zone
Tavares 61.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
5
(10 meetings)
5
5
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
4
Tavares
Stenlund
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
1
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
56.1% (615)
+1.9%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
53.2% (47)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
52.1% (307)
+5.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +5.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
57.8% (614)
57.0% (458)
Away
57.8% (554)
52.6% (511)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
58.0%
55.1%
P2
56.9%
53.3%
P3
58.4%
56.4%
OT
57.7%
42.1%
Final 5 min
57.8%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |