Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Tavares wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs Stenlund 51.2% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 12-3 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 96.8%
Defensive zone
Tavares 56.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 80.0%
Result
John Tavares favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
3
(15 meetings)
12
3
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 9-1 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
10
0
Tavares
Stenlund
10 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
Stenlund
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
2
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
54.4% (592)
+4.8%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
42.9% (14)
+17.1%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
44.1% (229)
-1.2%
On power play, Tavares has a +17.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (487).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
57.5% (668)
50.7% (402)
Away
61.1% (684)
52.0% (433)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
58.0%
56.5%
P2
60.1%
52.4%
P3
61.0%
45.2%
OT
27.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 3 | 04:16 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:39 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 03:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 09:04 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 01:26 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 1, 2024 | 1 | 03:00 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 16:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 3 | 10:38 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 28, 2023 | 1 | 19:33 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 18:51 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 02:43 | Offensive | John Tavares |