Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.3% vs 59.1%). Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 75.7%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 80.8%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 53.9%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
0
Tavares
Stenlund
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
5
Tavares
Stenlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
Stenlund
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
58.6% (797)
-0.9%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
62.5% (24)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
60.5% (233)
-4.1%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +4.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
59.7% (610)
58.6% (548)
Away
57.0% (698)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
57.2%
60.2%
P2
58.5%
59.1%
P3
59.4%
58.3%
OT
46.7%
58.6%
Final 5 min
57.0%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:54 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 04:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |