Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.4% vs 54.1%). Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 54.4% vs Stenlund 54.0% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 25-15 in 40 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 85.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 78.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.5%
Result
John Tavares favored at 57.7%
57.7%
42.3%
Tavares
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
15
(40 meetings)
25
15
Tavares
Stenlund
Last 10: Tavares 5-5 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
17
0
Tavares
Stenlund
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
12
Tavares
Stenlund
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
7
3
Tavares
Stenlund
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
54.0% (16,108)
55.3% (2,703)
-1.3%
Power Play
56.5% (4,283)
52.6% (116)
+3.9%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (620)
50.6% (919)
+0.0%
On power play, Tavares has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,535).
Tavares shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
Tavares
Stenlund
Home
56.1% (10,503)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
52.7% (10,537)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
Tavares
Stenlund
P1
55.0%
56.4%
P2
54.1%
53.3%
P3
54.1%
52.8%
OT
55.9%
52.9%
Final 5 min
54.8%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
54.4%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 06:26 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 17:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 17:48 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 07:47 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 1 | 01:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 19:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 00:18 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 17:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 2 | 06:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 24, 2024 | 1 | 17:48 | Neutral | John Tavares |