Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 61.3% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 58.7% vs McTavish 51.5% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 87.3%
Defensive zone
Tavares 74.8%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.6%
Result
John Tavares favored at 77.3%
77.3%
22.7%
Tavares
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Tavares
McTavish
Last 5: Tavares 4-1 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
0
Tavares
McTavish
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
3
1
Tavares
McTavish
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
59.2% (1,035)
51.3% (725)
+7.9%
Power Play
60.0% (310)
55.8% (113)
+4.2%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (7)
28.6% (7)
+14.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +14.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Tavares is 61.3% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Tavares shoots left. McTavish is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (580).
Home / Away
Tavares
McTavish
Home
57.5% (668)
52.0% (454)
Away
61.1% (684)
51.4% (391)
By Period
Tavares
McTavish
P1
58.0%
51.3%
P2
60.1%
50.4%
P3
61.0%
53.3%
OT
27.8%
50.0%
Final 5 min
60.7%
55.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
59.3%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
51.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 16:12 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:13 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 3, 2024 | 2 | 14:08 | Defensive | John Tavares |