Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for McTavish on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Tavares wins 59.5% vs left-shot opponents — McTavish shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs McTavish 50.6% (+7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McTavish 74.7%
Defensive zone
McTavish 74.7%
Neutral zone
McTavish 70.5%
Result
Mason McTavish favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
Tavares
McTavish
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Tavares
McTavish
Last 8: Tavares 2-6 McTavish
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McTavish
1
2
Tavares
McTavish
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Tavares
McTavish
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McTavish
0
3
Tavares
McTavish
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McTavish
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
51.1% (769)
+6.6%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
50.6% (178)
+9.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
28.6% (14)
+27.8%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +27.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McTavish shoots left. Tavares is 59.5% vs left-shot opponents (818).
Tavares shoots left. McTavish is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (665).
Home / Away
Tavares
McTavish
Home
59.7% (610)
52.3% (461)
Away
57.0% (698)
49.2% (500)
By Period
Tavares
McTavish
P1
57.2%
51.5%
P2
58.5%
54.0%
P3
59.4%
47.1%
OT
46.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
McTavish
46.0%▬
45.5%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 17:16 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:57 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 15:07 | Defensive | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:54 | Neutral | Mason McTavish |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:50 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Mason McTavish |