Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on defensive-zone draws (82% H2H, 11 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.2% vs McCarron 52.5% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
McCarron leads 12-4 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 92.4%
Neutral zone
McCarron 83.2%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 84.7%
15.3%
84.7%
Tavares
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
12
(16 meetings)
4
12
Tavares
McCarron
Last 10: Tavares 4-6 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
2
0
Tavares
McCarron
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
9
Tavares
McCarron
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
3
Tavares
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
58.0% (914)
53.1% (672)
+4.9%
Power Play
57.0% (235)
18.2% (11)
+38.8%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (19)
53.7% (205)
+4.2%
On power play, Tavares has a +38.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Tavares is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (402).
Tavares shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Tavares
McCarron
Home
57.8% (614)
52.8% (477)
Away
57.8% (554)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Tavares
McCarron
P1
58.0%
56.5%
P2
56.9%
53.2%
P3
58.4%
49.0%
OT
57.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
57.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
57.8%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:18 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 12:42 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 00:28 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 19:43 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 17:45 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 12:38 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 17:19 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 15:42 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 1 | 11:53 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 11:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 2 | 03:21 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 13:34 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 14, 2025 | 1 | 02:25 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |