Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Tavares wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Tavares 57.7% vs McCarron 54.0% (+3.9%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 89.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 73.7%
Neutral zone
Tavares 67.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 59.1%
59.1%
40.9%
Tavares
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
5
(14 meetings)
9
5
Tavares
McCarron
Last 10: Tavares 6-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
0
Tavares
McCarron
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
4
Tavares
McCarron
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
1
Tavares
McCarron
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Tavares
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
57.7% (998)
54.2% (756)
+3.5%
Power Play
60.5% (271)
55.6% (9)
+4.9%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (39)
55.1% (158)
+1.3%
On power play, Tavares has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Tavares is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (490).
Tavares shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
Home / Away
Tavares
McCarron
Home
59.7% (610)
54.6% (445)
Away
57.0% (698)
54.2% (478)
By Period
Tavares
McCarron
P1
57.2%
53.6%
P2
58.5%
55.6%
P3
59.4%
53.7%
OT
46.7%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.0%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Tavares
46.0%▼
54.5%
58.3%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:28 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:20 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 04:12 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 00:49 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 07:11 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 06:56 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:25 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:39 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 16:45 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 09:05 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |